129788422094218750_155After the Ching Ming Festival, 7th decline of repo rate earlier this month between the banks of seasonal character, but is still as high as 3.7% per cent, early March to pick up more than 40-50BP. SHIBOR rates from 1 month, 3 months and 7th the repo rate trend as compared with, although SHIBOR and 7th repurchase rates downward trend in interest rates, but the twoSpreads to show signs of rebound, reflecting relative to short-term interest rates, slowing momentum in the medium-term interest rates down. Recommended reading Bank to restart the first 85 percent discount Bank mortgage interest rate this week
tera power leveling, releasing billions of liquidity funds Vice President of Fudan University School of Economics in favour of the Bank salary CPI down or cause a fall in financial product receipts Standard Chartered Bank employee suspected of helping money-launderingDetention a live inventory of more than 4,000 concubines when deposits of Chiefs of the Kingdom of the most gold stars baby | figure from the early liquidity injected and the lagged impact of the return, expect hedge April adjustment coefficient (ratio between the total return and put the total liquidity) than rebound in March, hub face to pick up funds interest rate pressures. From December 2011, 20February 12 new foreign exchange increased 125.4 billion yuan, fiscal deposit return 1.3343 trillion yuan, small and medium-sized financial institutions ' reserve requirements to pay additional $ 27.7 billion released reserve pay more $ 25.8 billion, public markets back to 417 billion yuan. Comprehensive hedge coefficient by December 2011-February 2012 9.43 times rose to 2.36 times, leading to April 2012 coefficient of adjusting the hedge (January 2012 and February 2012 comprehensive hedge coefficient of mean value) by March 2012-4.21 times times back up to three times.
����Compared with March, April, interbank repo rate mean to pick up power. Funds from the expected factors, uncertainty increased. FavourableEffect of, on the one hand, due April open market scale nearly $ 400 billion, since January 2012. The other hand, the 5th, 15th and 25th each month, banks and other deposit-taking institutions will be based on a different point in time deposits payable by the cardinal changes in reserve requirement adjustment (fall back or fill), under the influence of a bank rush deposits at the end of the quarter, on April 5, silverReserve pay scale, and with the end of influence gradually fade, April 15, may have a larger reserve of refunds. From the perspective of negative factors, on the one hand added Exchange hard optimism. Since August 2010, new scale of foreign exchange and has become increasingly active in the offshore renminbi (CNH) market reflect the next revaluation within 1 yearIs a significant negative correlation between periods. Devaluation expected although weakened since the January 2012 but does not separate from the depreciation, the depreciation expected to average 0.7-0.9%
tera gold, since April 2012 is the climb to 1.23%, so the future of the Exchange incremental scale is still not optimistic. The other hand, the April financial deposits in the banking system of seasonalCage pressure increases. Every year in April-May, under the influence of corporate tax, there will be substantial funds in the form of financial deposits to the Bank, a way of objectively as liquidity back. 2000-2011, financial deposits from the increased probability of 83%, slightly lower than the year (January) and year (July). From the perspective of average size, onlyIn January.
����Released from the past 5 years financial deposits per cent variation, released in April, the financial deposit size increment of Delta released approximately January financial deposits 30%, is expected to exceed $ 450 billion. General provisions for possibility of rate cut, there is a downward adjustment of necessity
tera power leveling, but the urgency is not yet clear. From the perspective of need, first of all, added foreign exchange trend of decline becameConsensus and, secondly, although the March inflation rebounding, but the trend of decline expected in the second quarter is still leading.
����From the perspective of urgency, and in February compared to cut the deposit rate, due April open market volume, added foreign exchange from negative to positive, clearly down to central funds interest rate, therefore less urgency to lower the deposit rate in February. Seasonal features, April fundsImproving weak seasonal reason. 2001-2011 the year 7th April Bank repurchase rate is only 45.5% per cent fall in the value of the probability, less than the monthly mean values of the year (52.3%), the probability is in third at a low level for the whole year, April central funds interest rate fall seasonal causes weakness.
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